A mathematical model of human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) dynamics

Abstract

Human metapneumovirus is a viral infectious disease of health concern. In this paper, we developed a mathematical model on HMPV spread and showed that the modeled equation was mathematically well posed and epidemiologically meaningful. We adopted the dynamical system analysis technique in the model, particularly obtaining the threshold quantity R0, the basic reproduction number via the next generation matrix approach and also proved the existence of fixed points (steady states). The study on sensitivity analysis informed that the exposure rates of human population are the most significant in influencing new infections in the system. Lastly, we examined the short and long term dynamics of the disease within the basin of attractions using appropriate tools, and found out that there is possibility of wiping out HMPV from the populace with time
provided attention is paid to awareness, exposure, and improved dietary to boost immunity level.