Mathematical modelling of norovirus transmission incorporating human and environmental factors with evaluation of screening and supportive treatment

Abstrakt

Norovirus is a highly contagious viral pathogen that causes acute gastroenteritis, resulting in vomiting and diarrhoea. It accounts for approximately 200,000 deaths each year, including 50,000 child fatalities globally, highlighting its substantial impact on public health. This study investigated the transmission dynamics of norovirus using a mathematical modelling approach. The basic re-
production number is computed and used to establish the stability of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and the endemic equilibrium (EE), such that the DFE is locally and globally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1, while the EE is locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever R0 > 1. With the aid of Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCCs) and Latin Hypercube Sampling
(LHS), a global sensitivity analysis identifies pathogen decay due to disinfection and proper sanitation (μa), recovery rate resulting from screening and supportive treatment (γ), shedding rate (π), and effective environment-to-human transmission rate (βEH ) as the most significant parameters influencing disease spread. Findings from numerical simulations show that, to control this disease in society, intensive screening, supportive treatment, hygiene practices, disinfection, and proper sanitation should be implemented.