THEORETICAL ANALYSIS OF A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR THE DYNAMICS OF CORRUPTION: A GUIDE FROM EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELLING

Resum

A new deterministic model for the spread of corruption is designed and used to qualitatively assess the role of convictions and loss of immunity' to corruption on the transmission process of corruption in a society. It is shown that loss of 'immunity' to corruption and the rate at which previously convicted and jailed corrupt individuals revert to being susceptible to corruption could induce the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the associated corruption reproduction number is less than unity. This will make eradicating corruption from the
community difficult. However, when the cause of the backward bifurcation phenomena is removed, it is shown that the corruption-free equilibrium of the model is globally-asymptotically stable whenever the corruption reproduction number is less than unity. We further show that there exists a unique corruption endemic equilibrium which is shown to be locally-asymptotically stable when the the associated corruption reproduction number is greater than unity. The qualitative analysis suggest that effort should be geared towards providing policies that could prevent previously convicted (and jailed) individuals from becoming susceptible to corruption after their release from prison. Furthermore, individuals who become 'self recovered' from corruption due to some intervention programmes are to be assisted to remain resistant to corruption, if corruption is to be stamped out of the target population.