Mathematical model for controllability of covid-19 investigating the impact of protective measures, for optimal solution to lower the disease burden in Nigeria

الملخص

This work presents a non–linear deterministic mathematical model, analyzed to study the controllability of Covid-19 incorporating all-round protection, hospitalization, treatment and early burial of death due to covid-19 measures. We introduce a protection measure(A), that will cooperate with all government guidelines and observe personal hygiene, early burial of covid-19 death to extend B.I. Omede 2022 work. The existence of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) state was established which shows the state in which there is no covid-19 infection for stability. The effective reproduction number and the local stability of the DFE were computed using the next generation and linearization approach respectively. The sensitivity analysis shows that the parameter with the highest positive sensitivity index is a proportion of susceptible ones that are not protecting themselves from covid-19 infection. The value, +1.014, of the sensitivity index of a shows that personal protection and other forms of protection, play important role in the control of spread of the disease. From numerical simulations, it was observed that the introduction of protective parameters leads to significant impact on the reduction of the spread of the disease. Moreso, it was discovered that effective implementation of protective measures without relaxing it will help in reducing the spread of the disease.