Modeling Malaria transmission dynamics incorporating insecticide resistance in mosquito vectors

Résumé

Malaria remains a major public health challenge in sub-Saharan Africa, with Nigeria bearing the highest global burden. Emerging insecticide resistance threatens core vector-control interventions such as long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). This study develops a deterministic compartmental SLIR-SLI model that explicitly incorporates insecticide resistance in mosquito populations by stratifying parameters via a dynamic resistance metric ρ.Model variables were informed by the Global Burden of Disease repository to provide realistic approximations of malaria transmission. Numerical simulations demonstrate that high prevalence of resistance leads to non-linear increases in infectious bites, reduces the efficacy of insecticide-induced vector mortality, and prolongs epidemic peaks. The model highlights the critical need for integrated approaches to mitigate vector resistance.