A Mathematical Model to Assess the Impact of Asymptomatic Infections on Malaria Transmission Dynamics Incorporating Awareness Campaigns and Treatment
Impact of Asymptomatic Infections on Malaria Transmission Dynamics
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Asymptomatic infection, Malaria, Transmission Dynamics, Treatment, Sensitivity Analysis##article.abstract##
Malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa is sustained in part by a large reservoir of asymptomatic infections that perpetuate transmission. While awareness-based interven- tions are widely promoted to improve prevention and treatment-seeking behaviour, their interaction with asymptomatic transmission is rarely examined. We develop a determinis- tic compartmental model that integrates awareness stratification of susceptible individuals with explicit compartments for asymptomatic, symptomatic, treated, and recovered humans, coupled with a vector population. Susceptible individuals are classified into low- and high- awareness groups, with transitions governed by awareness campaigns and waning awareness. The basic reproduction number is derived using the next-generation matrix method, and conditions for local and global stability of the malaria-free equilibrium are established. Sensi- tivity analysis identifies key parameters influencing transmission dynamics. The quantitative result of the threshold R0 reveals that asymptomatic cases contribute approximately 90.7% to the basic reproduction number, while symptomatic cases account for about 9.3%.The re- sult also shows that awareness alone is insufficient for malaria elimination in the presence of a substantial asymptomatic reservoir. However, combined strategies incorporating enhanced awareness, increased treatment coverage, reduced vector–human contact, and detection of asymptomatic infections significantly reduce transmission. The model underscores the need to integrate behavioural interventions with strategies targeting hidden infections to support malaria elimination efforts.
